Batu Sapi litmus test for Sabah BN

Support for Tsen will be used as a yardstick for BN’s hold on the East Malaysian state. — file pic

BATU SAPI, Nov 4 — Today is Barisan Nasional’s (BN) judgment day in Sabah as voters in Batu Sapi cast their ballots in a crucial by-election, said to be a referendum on the ruling coalition’s waning popularity in East Malaysia.

While the contest may be a three way battle between BN, state opposition Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and PKR, all eyes will really be on the ruling coalition and how successful its massive election machinery has been in helping it retain its stronghold just south of Sandakan.

Already, talk is that BN would fall when results are announced tonight, despite clinching the seat vote in Election 2008, as it is said that the combined opposition vote for SAPP and PKR would likely outnumber that of BN’s.

Pakatan Rakyat has called the contest a referendum against BN’s support in Sabah, long viewed as the ruling coalition’s fixed deposit.

They believe that a sizeable support for PKR may be a clear indication that the “political tsunami” that nearly swept BN out of the Malay peninsula during Election 2008 had already crept into the land below the wind.

In the final hours towards decision day, both the opposition parties in the race were campaigning furiously for support last night.

PKR held several large rallies last night, featuring political big-hitters like Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Penang Chief Minister and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng.

SAPP’s Datuk Yong Teck Lee, in the meantime, has spent the last few days visiting homes and rural folk, hoping to lend a personal touch to his campaign.

Yong is said to hold sway with the Chinese community.

He wrapped up his campaign last night by speaking at a rally in Tai Tung kindergarten in Taman Mawar, a Chinese majority area. 

 

BN, on the other hand, has opted for a quieter approach and its top leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, were huddled in a closed-door discussion at the Sabah Hotel in Sandakan last night.

From their strategies, it is clear that both the SAPP and PKR are banking largely on the swing vote from among the Chinese community of Batu Sapi, which make up some 38 per cent of the 25,582-strong electorate.

The seat comprises 59 per cent or 15,099 Muslim Bumiputeras, 38 per cent or 9,737 Chinese, 2.69 per cent or 698 non-Muslim Bumiputeras and 0.22 per cent or 57 others.

To date, PKR’s analysts have described their chances against SAPP as strong, but admit that they were still trailing behind BN.

This is because of the opposition party’s popularity among the Chinese of Batu Sapi, who have flocked in large numbers to show their support during PKR rallies.

PKR chief strategist Chua Tian Chang told The Malaysian Insider yesterday that, so far, support from the Chinese community seemed promising.

“We have held dialogues with leaders in the community, the elite, if you will, of the clan associations like the Hakka and the Cantonese,” he said.

He admitted, however, that the presence of SAPP’s candidate, party president and former Sabah chief minister Datuk Yong Teck Lee, in the fight had complicated things significantly.

Yong, known as the “Taiko” in Sabah, is said to be a powerful man among the Chinese community here, especially the Hakkas, and PKR’s decision to choose a Muslim to contest the seat may play a significant role in the Chinese vote.

“The concerns from the Chinese community, in the beginning, was in our decision to field a Malay for the seat. Although they may be supportive of us, some are also worried that by voting him, they would no longer have a Chinese-held seat in Batu Sapi.

“However, taking into consideration that Sabahans do not vote for race, this may make no difference at all,” said Chua.

He noted that if PKR could swing at least 50 per cent or more of the Chinese votes its way, it could likely take second place in the competition.

“But if Yong Teck Lee gets the Chinese vote, our presence in the Batu Sapi contest will help him win the fight,” he said.
Chua explained that this was because PKR was making significant inroads with the Bumiputeras, especially during the last leg of campaign.

“If we split BN’s vote from the Bumiputeras, BN’s chances drops and Yong’s goes up. Hence, if indeed he conquers the Chinese vote, he can clinch the seat,” he said.

Chua claimed that PKR was gunning to win at least 40 per cent of the Bumiputera vote but admitted that the target was likely a tall order in Batu Sapi.

The voters, he noted, were still largely in support of BN, out of habit, familiarity and a fear of the opposition.

A more prudent likelihood, according to him, was that PKR could garner some 30-odd per cent of Bumiputera votes.

PKR believe they have made enough ground with the Bumiputera community to help Ansari win.

“If this is the case, however, and we indeed score a large win from the Chinese community, above both SAPP and BN, then PKR can emerge as winners,” he said. 

All attention, he added, was on Yong now and whether the smooth-talking former chief minister would be able to sustain his momentum in the polls so far, especially among the Chinese voters.

PKR elections director Fuziah Salleh agreed with Chua but said the party was confident that it had surpassed Yong in the Chinese vote.

“Now, we just need to see how much inroads we have really made among the Bumiputeras. They have received us well and they seem supportive.

“Our greatest concern now is that they would continue to allow themselves to be bought over by the election handouts from the BN,” she said.

BN was alleged to have spent millions so far to give out food hampers, daily amenities, zinc slabs to mend roofs, various types of equipment and even citizenship titles to the rural folk of Batu Sapi in the past nine days of campaigning.

During The Malaysian Insider’s visits to several villages here, the local folk had indicated that they were favourable and happy with the gifts, pledging their vote to BN.

Some, however, have become cautious, showing that they were also caught up with the political rhetoric of the opposition parties.

As such, opposition politicians have been finding it hard to break into the psyche of these rural folk to change their way of thinking.

One PKR source told The Malaysian Insider that according to initial calculations, PKR was only sure of securing at least 5,000-odd votes tomorrow.

“But we target to win at least 8,000... then we stand a chance,” said the source.

The wave of support for Yong as well has been looking promising for SAPP. Its rallies and gatherings in the villages have attracted sizeable crowds of enthusiastic voters who cling on to “Taiko’s” every word.

Many villagers have also described Yong as the most suitable candidate after the BN, due to his experience in government and his “Sabah for Sabahan” concept, which has driven into them a sense of pride in being Sabahan.

Still, despite the many predictions and analyses on the outcome of tomorrow’s by-election, the final decision remains in the hands of Batu Sapi’s over 25,000 voters who, when they cast their ballots today, will be the true deciders of BN’s fate not only in Sabah, but in the whole of Malaysia.

Voting in Batu Sapi’s 12 polling districts will go on from 8am to 5pm. The Election Commission has said the results will be known by 8pm at the earliest.

(Source : The Malaysian Insider, 04 Nov 2010)